Take Profit Forex Trading

Stopp tap og ta fortjeneste Forex Trading. Stopp tap og ta fortjeneste rettferdig som Forex Trader. Mit Stop Loss - og Take Profit-Nivåer Kunder Hndler Beim Forex Trading Unntige Risikoen Forbedret og Gjenvinne Erfaringer Handler Sykler Dagene ble Stop Loss - og ta gevinstbegrensninger er satt, og det er en god posisjon. Det er et godt utgangspunkt for å utvikle strategiske strategier. Strategien ble stoppet, og overskuddsprestene i utgangspunktet utgjør begynnelsen. Begge varene er knyttet til risikokontrollene. Forex - Handel og utvinning av kontroller og kontroller Verktøy og forstyrrelser Forsikringstiltak Stopp-begrensninger av nahezu alle Tradern genutzt Dagene ble Tjenestegrensene er ikke like store, så viktige angesehen Mehr Infos finden Sie in unserem Glossar dazu oder in unserer Suchfunction zu Stop - Tap og ta fortjeneste. Det beror på Stop Loss - og Take Profit-Ordern. Stop Stop Loss - og Take Profit-Level Lassen sich imot ionale Entscheidungen whrend de Handelns vermeiden Die Erfahrung seier, dass viele Hndler von Gefhlen wie Angst of Gier beeinflusst werden Hörn die Akzeptanz von Risiken und Renditen u nach Trader unterschiedlich ist knnen Stop Loss - und Take Profit-Orders dazu verwendet werden, um die Gewhlte Strategie selv om du ikke har det, vil du ha det dårligere enn det du har gjort. Du har ikke hatt noe bedre, og det er risikoen for å få økt ekstremt negativ handel. Du kan spare penger i løpet av dagen, og det er viktig at du har en god rolle. den Forex-Mrkten kommt den Stop Loss-Limits Eine besondere Bedeutung zu Unerwartete Ereignisse knuten hier zu groen Kursbewegungen und damit verbunden zu hohen Lossen fhren Zwar sind die Stop Loss-Orders nicht garantiert und werden bei schnellen Kurswechseln nicht immer ausgefhrt, jedoch bieten mittlerweile einige Megler minner meg om at jeg er garantert Sto p Loss-Orders fr solche Situationen abzusichern. Finanzielle Stop Loss-Orders. Stop Loss-Limits stellen einen wichtigen Teil des Risikomanagements dar und sollten des bereiten von vorbereitung auf einen Handelskalkuliert werden Dabei gilt es, zwei Faktoren zu berichtsichtigen Zunchst sollte bedacht werden , welches Risiko eingegangen ble soll Im besten Fall sollte es auf etwa 2 Prozent des vorhandenen Guthabens redusiert ble Der zweite wichtige Factor ist das Verhltnis zu erzielbaren Gewonnen und damit verbunden zum Um Take Profit-Level Risiko von Verlusten sollte bei einem Trade nicht hher sein als der mgliche Gewinn. Technische Stop-Loss-Orders. Technische Stop-Loss-Level werden vor allem von erfahrenen Brokern zum Schutz de eigenen Handelskonto eingesetzt Diese Stop Loss-Level empfehlen sich franogen Swing-Trader, welche ihre Stilling langvarig halten Dabei werden dø Stop Loss-Limits på en Nivå satt, velges anzeigt, dass ein Trade fehlgeschlagen Det er mulig å få en bedre innsats for å opprettholde en bredere eller bedre måte. Elliot Wave-Linie eller Pivot-Linie er et tegn på tekniske stopper. Begrensninger ermglichen. Hndlern er en av de bedre Flexibilitt Dennoch ble opptatt av å opprette en e-post, Rendite erzielt ble kann som det Stop Loss-Limits Anmerkung der Redaktion Les så mye om teknisk analyse som det vil si. En Stop Loss-Limit bevegelse. Det er ikke et problem med å stoppe Loss-Limit når du kommer til å bevege deg, dennoch opprettholde en eneste Hndler som ønsker å være med på den opprinnelige prisen, og det er i denne verdensklassen beveger seg. Det er ikke bare en handel som handler om risikoen. Det er mulig at handelsmannen kan se på seg selv. Det er viktig at konsernet har lønnsgrenser. er den passenden Zeitpunkt zum Schlieen des Trades verpasst, sobald dieser i die Gewinnzone gerckt ist. Zahlreiche Begriffe b selv om de ikke er bundet, er det ikke så mange som er interessert i det, men de er ikke så store, men de er ikke så mange. Besøkspersoner med detaljer om sønnen, og de som er interessert i dem. Nemlig på grunn av brennemarkedet. Besonders bein der Inanspruchnahme von Brokern , dø im Netz dauerhaft som beliebt bezeichnet werden, sind besondere Bezeichnungen ebenso vorhanden Der Handel mit Binren Opties bentigt dementsprechend zur gleichen Seit ein bestimmtes Hintergrundwissen, om sicherstellen zu knnen, dass auf diegericht Handelsweisen geachtet wird Unterschiedliche Details sollten zum Begriff Stop Loss betrachtet werden , da er det et sted som handler, dør jeg alltid med meg selv, og jeg er ikke lenger i stand til å handle. Hvor er det? Løsning. Nicht nur i Deutschland, uten å være i anderen. Lndern der Welt, ble dømt til å stoppe Løsningsproblemet. bestimmter Wertpapierkurs deutlich untersch ritten wurde Bei der Inanspruchnahme von Binren Optionen und Aktien haben die Hindler imme die Mglichkeit, eine Stop Loss Funksjon zu nutzen Die modernen Broker, die Ihren Kunden kein hohes Risiko beim Handelen zumuten mchten, mssen in der Regel die Stop Loss Funksjonen er den vesentligste , damit die eigene Investering ikke noe mer absinkt og mer enn ikke brukbart av Forskjellige tabeller Das begrensning av en uregelmessig Ordre med automatisk og dårligere innhenting av kurs Angst avkastning, das der Hndler signalerer ikke noe annet enn å opprettholde muss, uten å stoppe stoppet direkte Når du er i stand til å gå, vil du være sikker på at du er i stand til å gjøre det mulig for deg å være i stand til å gjøre noe for deg. Hndler die Stop Loss Funksjon som strategi, om du vil ha så mange muligheter, når du er i stand til å tilpasse deg, når du kommer inn i handelssektoren Rckschlag bekommt, muss der Hndler den Rckschlag von einigen Prozenten hinnehmen In der Rege Jeg sind es um 10 bis 20 Prozent, die als Verlust einzuplanen sind. Welche Strategien mit Stop Loss gibt es. Anleger sind in der Regel nerver, wenn sie sich sich eich ehren Order kmmern mssen Allerdings muss er ikke så sein, når hun er en dør Stop Loss Strategie Høyden Wird Anleger, die trotz nervenaufreibender Nachrichten ruhig schlafen knnen und ihre Rendite nicht in Gefahr sehen, werden der wahrscheinlich der Stop Loss Funksjon bedienen Der investiert der Hndler sein Geld in eine Aktie, wie zum Beispiel in den DAX Zudem kann der Hndler eine Verlustgrenze von 10 Prozent for Jahr ansetzen, dø mitten av Stop Loss erhalten ble kann Svear kann den Hndlern an der Brse vorkommen, dass die Rendite relativ gering ausfllt Jedoch er den nur av den erste Blick der Fall Wenn ber meghr als 20 Jahre eine Aktie gefhrt werden mchte, kan von einem Einsatz von 10 000 Euro ein deutlicher Gewen von ber 70 000 Euro erhalten werden Natllich ist der dauerhafte und langwierige Einsatz wichtig, um einen derartigen Gewinn von ber 700 Prozent erhnen zu knnen Abzglich der Steuern und Gebhren wre ein Betrag von knapp 50 000 Euro zu erhalten Diese Strategie ist kein besonderes Geheimnis mehr, da de meisten Hndler sich mit dem Stop Loss beschftigen und diesen nutzen Leider kann diese Strategi med andre mennesker og kompliserer Metoder for handel ikke noe som helst Dennoch wird auf ein geringes Risikoen er satt, om etter hvert Jahren einen guten Være nutzen zu knnen Besonders i Krisenzeiten er en Stop Loss sehr interessant og kan deutliche Vorteile med meg bringer Ein gutes Beispiel sind die Schwarzen Brsenjahre 2002 und 2008 Her kan du se DAX med en sukk 40 Prozent Einbruch analysiert var Hndler med en gang Stop Loss lediglich 10 Prozent ihres Einsatzes lost. Zeitpunkt er auszuwhlen. Damit mit einem Stopp Loss ruhig handles werden kann sollten Anleger diese Funktion nicht nutzen , er begynnelsen av Jahres ein Absturz verdeutlicht und de folgenden J ahre i den Haussemodus schaltet Das war unter anderem i den Jahren 2003 og 2009 der Fall Svar klettete der DAX svarte etter naken, dennoch musste mit der Strategie zuvor ein Minus von 10 Prozent verzeichnet werden Somit kann auch hier erkend werden, dass keine Strategie fehlerfrei ist Nervenschonend ist Stop Loss dennoch, da Gewinne mit einer ruhigen Handmacht ble knnen Wird die Brsenpsychologie betraget, kan det være, de er mestre. Hndler ser dem unzufrieden mit einem Verlust se Ein Verlust schmerzt sie dementsprechend mehr, als zie ein Gewinn freut Aus diesem Grund forsikre deg om at du er i stand til å stoppe og uansett, uansett hva som skjer, men det er ikke noe du vil. den Stoppkurs von zehn Prozent eintragen lassen Dannmus der Hndler ganze 12 Monate nicht handeln Wenn das Papier dennoch i dieser Zeit stoppet wurde, kann Investor die Kaufoption mit Stoppkurs wiederholen Wenn der nicht der Fall, kan den Stoppkurs nachziehen und auf zehn Prozent und dem neuen Kurswert festlegen Der Anleger hat den Vorteil, dass er sich ein einmal Im Jahr um seine Investeringen er en av de andre stedene, og det er en av de hellige kostene for strategien, og de handler om transaksjoner, men det er ikke bare noe som skjer, men det er også viktig for deg å være i stand til å håndtere dine strategier. sehr leichte Strategie, die Verlust auf Dauer reduseres kann Diese eignet sich fr Brsenneulinge und auch fr Anleger, die schon sehr viel Erfarenhet von der Brse sammeln konnten Hierdurch wird jedoch nur ein kleiner Teil des Depots angefressen und der growth Verlust vermelde Zusammenfassend knnen folgende Vorteile der Strategie genannt werden. Geringer mglicher Verlust. Sehr gute Mglichkeit fr Anfnger, om mit dem Hande Ln zu begynne. Managen der investierten Aktie nur einmal im Jahr. Hndler muss nicht aktiv sein. Nachrichten lassen den Hndler passiv weiterhandeln. Trendkurven sind mit Stop Loss er besten zu combieren. Hndler verlassen sich auf den Trend. Natrlich muss fr die Weiterentwicklung einer Strategie Beim Handel mit Aktien, i løpet av den store etterspørselen ble funnet av kartanalysen, som er basert på en kombinasjon av strategiske strategier. Det er best mulig å stoppe stoppfunksjonen, og det er viktig at Immerhin handler om dette Analyseart, om de forskjellige Vorteile Einer Aktie i Detail zu Betrachten Bei der Stop Loss Funksjon Jeg er best dør Bestilling med dem Begrens søket, wenn zwischendurch ein neues Tief anfllt Wenn der Kurset stiger, muss mit keinem Verlust gerechnetz Setzt sich hingegen die Abwrtsbewegung fort, kann die eingefhrte Funktion die Investition ret Somit bleibt der Gewinn gesichert und es sind ab fnf Prozent Verlust einzuplanen mit dem Trend zu Gehen ist bei der Strategie wichtig, um keine unrealistischen Prognosen von zu geben Den langfristige Investition ist in diesem Fall sehr wichtig und kann dazu fhren, dö einhählen Gewinn erhalten wird. Damit ein hochwertiger Broker im Netz gefunden werden kann bietet die die Nutzung von vielen Vergleichsseiten og overordnede Broker kennenzulernen I denne sosammenhang mchte der Broker XM vorgestellt werden, der Zypern ansssig ist Es handler sich einem Broker mit Schwerpunkt auf Handel mit Devisen Aber auch CFDs knnen hier handelt werden, wichr die Plattform genutzt werden kann Es sind Werte aus der ganzen Welt mit FX zu handeln Auerdem gibt es Niederlassungen in unterschiedlichen europischen Lndern, der andre i Deutschland, Finnland und Spanien Der Broker bietet faire Preise und und mit mit zahlreichen Weiterbildungsangeboten punkter Der Kundenservice ist bei XM zustzlich sehr zuverlssig Per telefon og Live-Chat sind dør Berater des Brokers zu k Deaktivering av Meklerens Synd. Neukundenbonus von 1000 euro. Handel er MT4 og VPS-Service. Sofortige Ein - og Auszahlungen. Merhin-Calls ab 50 Prozent. Bis 5000 Euro Bonus mglich. Handel med Forex Rohstoffen, Metaller, Indizes. Den Broker er en av de største og mest verdifulle personene i verden, og det er ikke noe vi har å håndtere, men det er ikke noe vi har å gjøre. Det er interessant å se på. Det er ikke noe vi vet, men det er grunnen til at vi er i kombinasjon med kartanalyser og næringsinnhold. var. Hier knnen Sie sich Presentation der unterschiedlichen Broker herunterladen, om den beste Brokeren for Forex, Aktien, CFD, Binre Optionen og Rohstoffe for slikt og unntak av å oppnå en følge med Twitter og Facebook. Stopp tap og ta fortjeneste om Forex Handelen ble sist endret 25. september 2015 av Deutsche Forex Broker. Du er her Hjem Slik handler du Slik bruker du stop-loss ta fortjeneste ectively i trading. How å bruke stopp tap ta fortjeneste effektivt i trading. Stop tap og ta fortjeneste nivåer brukes av forex handelsmenn å beskytte dem mot unødvendig finansiell risiko og også for å sikre at fortjeneste blir tatt for vellykkede bransjer Stopp tap og ta profitt nivåer er begge ordrene som er plassert i markedet for å lukke en åpen stilling. Handlere som følger en bestemt strategi, vil sannsynligvis nominere sitt stopp og overskuddsnivå samtidig som de går inn i handel. Begge disse ordrene inngår i en tradere risikostyringsstrategi og sikre solid pengeforvaltning i å kontrollere totalt potensielt tap og gevinster for hver handel. Mens stoppet tap er ansatt hos nesten alle forex-handelsfolk, kan profittnivåene ses som mindre viktig, selv om de fjerner mange av problemene som står overfor handelsfolk som holder vinnende stillinger. Hva du bør vite på forhånd, er at det avhenger av Forex megleren dersom et stopp tap utføres riktig. y er verdiløs med feil megler Vi anbefaler å handle med en profesjonell megler som Dukascopy som er en av de mest pålitelige og raskeste plattformene der ute. Du bør ha en fungerende handelskonto med en pålitelig megler slik før du går videre. Klikk her for å logge deg opp med Dukascopy og ta en titt på deg selv. Betydningen av å stoppe tap og ta profittordrer. Stopp tap og ta fortjeneste nivåer er viktig for å eliminere nødvendigheten av å ta følelsesmessige beslutninger i sanntid trading Psykologien av handel tyder på at markeder styres av frykt og grådighet Mens ulike handelsfolk vil uttrykke forskjellige nivåer av hvor mye de er villige til å miste eller vinne fra en handel, stoppe tap og ta fortjenestene gjør at dette blir mekanisert. Dette betyr at vinnende handler er mindre sannsynlig å slå seg inn på tap av posisjoner og mislykkede handler vil ikke føre til katastrofale tap Stopp tap er også viktig på grunn av volatilitet som kan oppstå i forexmarkeder w med plutselige og uforutsigbare nyheter og hendelser som kan forårsake store bevegelser og forårsake store tap. Selv om det ikke er garantert regelmessige stoppordre, og derfor kan bli utsatt for lignende slippe i raske markeder, er det mulig å garantere stopp med mange meglere som kan forsvare handelsmenn mot disse trekkene. Finansielle stopp-tap. Stopp tap nivåer bør beregnes under utarbeidelsen av handelen som de utgjør en viktig del av en handelsmann s penger og risikostyring strategi, bør deres beregning stole på to faktorer Den første av disse er hvor mye risiko de vil eksponere handelskontoen til i løpet av hver handel. Ideelt sett bør dette begrenses til 2 av kontoverdien som et absolutt maksimum. Den andre faktoren er at stoppet tap skal være i forhold til de potensielle gevinsten, og derfor tar overskuddet nivå Ideelt sett bør risikoen for tap på hver handel ikke være større enn den potensielle fortjenesten. Tekniske stopp tap. Noen erfarne forexhandlere foretrekker å bruke teknisk st opp tap nivåer for å beskytte sine kontoer Disse stopper tap nivå favorisere swing handelsfolk som holder lengre sikt stillinger og krever at handel har en rimelig mengde plass å puste grunnen til at disse stopper er tekniske er at de vanligvis er plassert på nivåer som vil vise at handel har sviktet dersom de utløses. Dette kan blant annet være over eller under et nøkkelstøtte - eller motstandsnivå, pivotnivå eller identifisert Elliot-bølge innenfor et prisdiagram Selv om tekniske stopptap kan gi mer fleksibilitet til valutahandlere, de er vanligvis bare ansatt der det potensielle resultatet forventes å overstige det tapet at disse stopper tapene representerer. Når et stopptap kan flyttes. Selv om det anses uklokt å komme i vane med å utvide stopptap når handelen er aktiv og når prisen beveger seg nærmere det opprinnelige nivået, liker de fleste handelsfolk å flytte sitt stoppfall til å bryte jevn når handel går inn i profitt Ved å flytte stoppet t o inngangsprisen blir en handel nesten helt risikofri og tillater næringsdrivende å fokusere helt på profittnivået som de krever. Bruk en ta fortjeneste når stoppfallet er i stykker, selv vil bistå med vanskelighetene med å vite når man skal lukke handel. Før vi går i detalj, vær så snill å velge en pålitelig megler med en god plattform som til slutt utfører stopptap. Et godt eksempel er AvaTrade, en av de største og mest pålitelige meglerne på markedet. Hvis du ikke har en konto der, bør du registrere deg her og begynne å handle med effektive stopp tap. Handel med markedsleder nå 25 Dollar velkomstbonus uten innskudd Plus500 er en av de mest populære meglerne og har en utmerket kundeservice. Du kan starte med bare 100 minimum innskudd og handel med Forex markedet, varer og mange indekser. Begynn å handle på Plus500 today. Risk Disclosure Notice CFD s kan sette kapitalen din i fare hvis den brukes på spekulativ måte. Stopptap og ta fortjeneste i Forex. Stopp tap og ta fortjeneste danner to viktige elementer i handelsstyring og er like viktig som analysen man ville gjøre før man åpnet en posisjon I denne artikkelen presenterer vi en kort veiledning for å bruke stopptap og ta fortjeneste, og presenterer også en detaljert opplæring i hvordan du stiller stopp og målnivåer ved hjelp av MT4-handelsplattformen. Stopp tap SL eller Stopp er definert som en ordre som du forteller eller sender til megleren, fortelle dem å begrense tapene i en åpen stilling eller handel. Ta fortjeneste TP eller målpris er en ordre du forteller eller sender til megleren, og informerer dem om å lukke posisjonen din eller handle når prisen når et spesifisert prisnivå i fortjeneste For å lære mer om disse ordrene, les vår artikkel om Types of Orders i MetaTrader for å lære mer om grensen og stoppe ordrer. Stopp tap og ta overskuddsnivåer er sta Tic i natur Med andre ord, ordrene utløses og handelen din er stengt når en sikkerhet når et spesifisert prisnivå. For eksempel hvis du lagde en kjøpsordre på EURUSD på 1 385 og satt stopptap på 1 375 og målnivå på 1 395, når prisen beveger seg under oppføringen og treffer 1 375 er bestillingen din lukket for et tap på 10 pips. På samme måte, når prisen går til 1 395, er bestillingen din lukket for et overskudd på 10 pips. Hvorfor sette stopptap eller målresultat. Grunnen til at handlende vil sette seg på et stopptap eller målet overskuddsnivåer, er å styre sine handler bedre. Forestill deg å handle uten et stopp, noe som potensielt kan utmynte all din egenkapital. På samme måte tenk ikke å handle uten en målpris, som i utgangspunktet ville avsløre hele kontoen din egenkapital til markedssvingninger. Hva er Trailing Definition. Trafikkstopp er mer dynamisk i naturen Ved bruk av tilbakestilling stopper stoppprisnivået etter et spesifikt antall pips. Noen handelsplattformer lar deg også sette et stoppested basert på Prosentandeler beveger seg også Stoppestopp brukes vanligvis når du vil ta så mye av fortjenesten som mulig under ekstreme trender. For eksempel vil innstilling av et stoppestopp på 20 Pips bety at et nytt stoppnivå ville bli satt når prisen beveger 20 pips i din for eksempel. Hvis du for eksempel har lagt inn en kjøpsordre på EURUSD på 1 385 og sett det opprinnelige stoppet til 1 375 og et tilbakestilt stopp på 10 Pips, så dersom prisen flytter 20 pips til din fordel, vil det nye stoppet tapet bli flyttet til 1 385, noe som gjør din handel pause, selv om prisen fortsetter å flytte ytterligere 20 pips, så flytter det bakre stoppet ytterligere 10 pips i din favør, slik at din nye stopptap rekkefølge til 1 395 og dermed låses i 10 pips av fortjeneste. brukes sammen med take profit rekkefølge som det kan bidra til å gjøre din handel lås i så mye pips som du vil og som spesifisert av tilbakestilling stopp i stedet for å sette en statisk stopp loss rekkefølge. Følgende diagram nedenfor illustrerer ved hjelp av stopp tap, ta fortjeneste og trailing stops. How å sette S toppspenning og fortjeneste i MT4.Når du legger en ventende ordre, kan du spesifisere inngangs-, stopp - og målprisnivåene Følgende bilde viser bestillingsvinduet når en ventende ordre brukes på MT4-plattformen. Figur 1 Stopp og målnivå ved å bruke ventende ordrer. Hvis du bruker en markedsordre, kan du alltid oppdatere stopp - og målnivået ved å høyreklikke på den åpne posisjonen og velge Endre eller Slett rekkefølge som åpner vinduet for bestillingshåndtering slik at du kan sette opp stopp - og målnivået. Figur 2 Endre stopp - og målpris i markedsordre. For å sette opp bakstopp, høyreklikk på den åpne rekkefølgen og velg Trailing Stop. I dette alternativet kan du velge forhåndsdefinerte sluttstoppverdier eller velge Tilpasset for å sette opp eget etterspor stopp verdi For å slette tidligere tilbakevendende stoppverdier, høyreklikk for å velge Trailing Stop, og velg deretter Slett alt for å fjerne forrige tilbakestillingsverdi. Figur 3 Oppsett Trailing stops. Trailing stopper, stopper tap og tar proff Passende nivåer er en av de enkleste handelshåndteringshandlingene som en næringsdrivende kan gjøre til tross for deres enkelhet, ved å bruke stopptap og ta profittnivåer, kan det hjelpe en næringsdrivende å håndtere fortjeneste og tap på en mer effektiv måte uten å måtte utsette sin kapital for mye og risikere mister det i sin helhet. 9 stemmer, gjennomsnittlig 4 44 av 5.Hvordan du plasserer stopper og tar fortjeneste ved hjelp av en maksimal strategi. Når du går inn i en handel, hvordan velger du poenget med stoppet tap og tar overskudd Klart, vil denne avgjørelsen ha innvirkning på hvor lønnsomt handlerne dine er Men visste du at plasseringen av utgangsnivåene dine faktisk kan ha mer av betydning for lønnsomheten enn avgjørelsen om hvilken retning å handle. Hvordan velge å stoppe tap og ta overskudd forexop. I den volatile forexen markedet, det er faktisk sant Gitt hvor viktig denne beslutningen er, er det overraskende hvor lite trodde mange forhandlere gir til denne delen av sin handel. I denne artikkelen vil jeg forklare en kvantitativ strategi som vil hjelpe deg med å velge stopp og ta profittnivåer for maksimal profitt Jeg ønsker også å debunk noen av de vanlige misforståelsene rundt risiko-belønning oppsett, og vise hvordan følgende fattige råd kan ødelegge et potensielt godt trading system. If du bare vil prøve stoppet tap ta fortjeneste calcula tor, og er ikke interessert i teorien, vennligst klikk her. Hvorfor Gjøre Stopp Tap og ta fortjeneste er en plan for feil. En handelsposisjon vil normalt gå ut på ett av to punkter Etter å ha inngått handel, enten. Prisen når taket fortjeneste TP, og handel slutter i fortjeneste. Prisen når stoppfallet SL, og handelen vindes opp med tap. Når du bestemmer handelsutganger, er det noen ganger fristende å gjøre en utdannet gjetning. Noen handelsfolk bruker tekniske funksjoner som kartlys , trender, motstander og støtter Andre velger ganske enkelt et fast forhold med overskuddsmål for å stoppe tap. Mens dette er svært vanlig, er det flere ulemper. Det er feilaktig. Når du antar utgangsnivåene for en handel, er det veldig enkelt å enten overvurdere eller undervurdere prisbevegelser. Det kan ikke repeteres og det gjør det svært vanskelig å analysere eller forbedre ytelsen. Når det ikke er logikk eller metodikk bak plasseringer av utgangspunkter, vet du aldri om en feil skyldtes en feilberegnet T P SL kombinasjon eller fordi strategien din ikke virker. Tradere vil ofte flytte stopper opp eller ned på etterfølgende handler basert på prøve og feil å prøve å finne en søt spot. Det er veldig vanskelig å automatisere metoder som stole på tarminstinkt eller andre subjektive beslutninger . Det er ikke noe galt med å bruke teknisk analyse som en guide for timing av handelsinngangen, heller ikke for å bedømme hvor langt prisen kan bevege seg. I stedet brukes metoden jeg beskriver nedenfor, sammen med både kartlegging og grunnleggende analyse. Feil ved bruk av SL TP som Proxy Risk-Reward. Forex trading forums er fulle av velmenende, men likevel misforstått råd om risikobelønningsoppsett og hvordan du setter stoppstoppene dine. Dessverre mangler mange av disse menneskene å forstå den sanne betydningen av risiko eller belønning. Ideen om at bare å sette ditt stopp tap mindre enn du tar fortjeneste vil oppnå en viss risiko belønning er fullstendig nonsens. Using risikoen belønning å angi handel inngang og utganger gir ingen mening hvis du ikke vet proben evnen til utfall i en gitt handel. Ta dette enkle eksempel Anta at det er et lotteri som koster 1 å gå inn. Prisen er 1m. Ved definisjonen av nave-trader gir dette dette. Ved denne definisjonen virker dette et fantastisk spill å spille. antar at vi vet at to millioner mennesker går inn i lotteriet. Dette gjør oddsene til å vinne 1 2.000.000 en i to millioner. Nå vet vi oddsene, vi kan regne ut den sanne risikobeløpet. True-belønningsrisikoforholdet 5. Med andre ord, for hver 1 du legger inn i dette lotteriet, du forventer å få 50 cent tilbake. De fleste ville nå være enige om at dette ikke er et veldig godt spill. Selv om det var en belønning for risikobeløpet på en million, var det en belønning for risikobeløpet på en million. Dette eksemplet fremhever feilen av å bruke stopp og ta fortjeneste som et mål på din risikobeslutning. I en handel har vi den reelle risikobeløpet som er definert av. Risikobesvaringsforholdet. Det første du må vite om å sette handelsutgangspunkter er at mengden fortjeneste du Ønsker å gjøre en handel er direkte proporsjonal til risikoen du må ta for å fange det overskuddet. Dette er ikke en antagelse, men et matematisk faktum. Ta følgende handelsscenario Si for eksempel at en næringsdrivende ser en oppadgående trend på timekartet for USD JPY se diagrammet under Trenden har vært på plass i rundt en dag, slik at næringsdrivende mener det er en god mulighet for profitt. Han bestemmer seg for følgende oppsett. Nå skal vi analysere denne handelsoppsettet mer detaljert. Det første du må legge merke til, er at handelsmannen ønsker å ta en fortjeneste på 70 pips på handelen. Så hva som er galt med dette oppsettet. Basert på siste prisdata for dette valutaparet, kan vi beregne at USD JPY har en timesvolatilitet på 26 4 pips Det betyr i gjennomsnitt bevegelsen av prisen over en time er 26 4 pips Noen ganger mer, noen ganger mindre, men dette er gjennomsnittet. Figure 1 Trading eksempel, feil plassering av stopp tar fortjeneste forexop. Dette betyr at næringsdrivende prøver å tjene med 70 pips I virkeligheten er han faktisk satse mot markedet beca bruk han stoler på det faktum at prisen ikke vil synke mer enn 20 pips fra den åpne prisen i løpet av handelens handel. Det kan være opptil 30 timer hvis den nåværende trenden fortsetter fra Figur 1.Stop Loss Advisor. Chart Indicator. Å velge riktig stopp-loss plassering er en kritisk avgjørelse, men det er ofte forlatt til sjanse. Dette Metatrader-verktøyet anbefaler hvor du skal stoppe og ta fortjeneste på en hvilken som helst rekkefølge. Sett bare ønsket handelstid og vinnforhold og indikatoren gjør resten. Giver den timen volatilitet i USD JPY er for tiden over 26 pips. Denne mye stabiliteten i prisen vil være svært usannsynlig. Mens handelen har et veldig lavt maksimumsfall på 20 pips, som kan virke som et pluss, er sjansene for at det er ferdig i profitt ekstremt lavt. Hvis Vi vet i gjennomsnitt at prisen på USD JPY beveger seg opp eller ned med 26 4 pips hver time, hvorfor skulle det gjøre noe annerledes for denne handelen Svaret er at det ikke ville og handel ville trolig slå stoppet av den grunnen. Due til volatiliteten i FX, er dette sant selv om den forutsagte trenden fortsetter. Det grunnleggende problemet med oppsettet var at næringsdrivende prøvde å fange for mye fortjeneste uten å regne for volatilitet. Husk at volatilitet ikke er noe du kan unngå ved valutakurs forsiktig handel plukking eller en smart strategi Det er en absolutt sikkerhet. Derfor er det langt bedre å gjøre volatilitet arbeid for deg i stedet for deg. Spørsmålet er da når du setter opp en handel, hvordan vet du hvor du skal legge utgangen poeng annet enn bare å ta en vill gjetning Følgende vil forklare hvordan du gjør dette. Beregning av stoppfall og ta fortjeneste ved hjelp av maksimaler. Metoden jeg foretrekker å bruke, er basert på en teknikk som kalles maksimaler. Dette gir en presis formel til arbeid ut sannsynligheten for at prisen beveger seg en viss avstand fra det åpne i løpet av en gitt tid. Denne modellen gir en fullstendig fordeling av prisbevegelser for en gitt volatilitet. Denne metoden fungerer for enhver tidsramme, minutter timer eller til og med mon ths Det virker også like godt med enten historisk fortid eller underforstått fremtidig volatilitet. Ved å bestemme handelsutgangspunkter, er det tre ting å vurdere. Den forventede tidsrammen for handelen relatert til profittmål. Markedsendringene. Profitmålet. ta en titt på hver av disse. Steg 1 Tidsrammen. Type handelsmann du er, vil ha betydning ved den tiden din handler må være åpen for å nå din fortjeneste mål. En dag handelsmann eller en scalper ville holde en stilling for timer, minutter eller sekunder. I den andre ekstreme holder en bærehandler posisjoner i uker eller måneder. For bærehandleren er gevinsten på handelen vanligvis mindre viktig. Målet er å holde stillingen åpen så lenge som mulig til akkumulere interesse. Bare da er fortjeneste og tid knyttet. Når du angir handelsutgangspunkter, vet det første trinnet nøyaktig hvor langt prisen er sannsynlig å bevege seg i en gitt tidsramme. Når du vet dette, vil du kunne bestemme en realistisk fortjeneste target. T ake følgende eksempel Figur 2 nedenfor viser EUR USD over fem minutters intervaller M5 Diagrammet spenner over en 24-timers periode. Figur 2 EUR USD 5 Minutart M5 24-timers forexop. Det første jeg gjør er å beregne volatiliteten i løpet av den valgte perioden Fra de åpne lukkede dataene regner jeg med at det ligger litt over 10 pips per 5 minutters periode. Når jeg vet hvor flyktig markedet er, kan jeg projisere prisen fremover for å utarbeide sannsynligheten for et bestemt trekk x timer definert av 5 - minute intervals into the future. To do this, I need to calculate what are known as maximal curves see box for an explanation Briefly, taking the volatility as input these curves will tell me the probability of a maximum price either up or down being reached. Figure 3 below shows the maximal curves calculated for 1 hour to 24 hours ahead for the EUR USD chart. Figure 3 Maximal curves for EUR USD M5 - Pip Movement vs Probability forexop. For example, looking at the maximal curve for 24 hours top line , I know the price has a 76 8 probability of moving 62 pips within a 24-hour period Whereas it has a 40 probability of moving more than 141 pips in that same time frame. The Random Walk. I only give a brief description here of what are rather complex calculations The best market model we have for forex is the random step process or random walk. This just means that in every interval, the market moves by a random step value The price can slant towards an uptrend or a downtrend with a drift parameter. Using a discrete unitary step function to model these price moves, the probability that price reaches a certain maximum at any time can be found as. We then transform the price Z using the volatility into a standard unit variable for comparison against the step process From this we create a set of curves for different timeframes. In essence, the longer the time interval and the greater the volatility, the further the price can move from the existing level. From these we can calculate the probability of a price change over any length of time. Hedge funds and professional traders often use maximal curves or some variant thereof The reason they are so important is that they allow you to setup your trade accurately in terms of time and profit capture The curve tells you if the amount of profit you want to make is reasonable in terms of the time span. For example, I know if I wanted to capture a 300-pip movement, I would likely be waiting roughly ten-days based on the current volatility level This is because from the curve, there is only a 10 chance of the price moving 300 pips in any 24-hour period. Step 2 The Market. If the market is flat, or trending in a certain direction this will have a strong bearing on where you place your stops and profits In terms of the model, it means that we have an asymmetric distribution of price movements. There are several ways to allow for this, but the simplest and the one I prefer is to use a different volatility for the upside and downside price model. Maximal curves displaye d on chart forexop. The statistical skew is useful here because it tells you how asymmetric the volatility distribution is and allows you to add an upwards downwards drift. Random walk not trending Trend up positive drift Trend down negative drift. With the random walk, up and down price moves are equally likely When trending, two different sets of maximal curves are needed, one for up moves and another for down. Step 3 The Profit Target. Having decided on a timeframe and on the trending characteristics, I can now choose an appropriate profit target that will give my trade a high win probability. Say I ve checked the chart, and decided to buy at the current market level, and I decide my target will be 40 pips and my cut off will be -100 pips. The table below gives the probability of my exit points being reached in each of the three market conditions. Take profit 40 pips. My best outcome happens if the short-term trend reverses, that is if the market rises and makes my buy profitable The worst o utcome happens if the trend continues in the same direction trend In that case, I have a 42 chance of the trade ending in profit, and a 47 chance of it ending in a loss. When I set the trade up what I am looking for is the chance of the take profit being reached, to be at least 1 5x the chance of the stop being reached This will give a win ratio of around 70 or higher. Also, remember that if you move the stop loss or take profit while the trade is open that gives you an entirely different set of outcomes. Analyzing the Trade. To see how the stop and take profit levels shift for different trading timeframes, I can work out an envelope, which will give me a fixed win ratio The graph below in Figure 4 shows this plotted out for my example trade. From this, I can see that if I were trading over a 12-hour period, I could choose to set. That would achieve the same win ratio It would also give a lower profit of just 26 9 pips. Figure 4 TP SL envelope for fixed trade win ratio forexop. With my 24-hour timeframe, I can also see how the possible outcomes will change over time. The chart below Figure 5 shows the probability of a win, a loss, or the trade remaining open over 24 hours the expected lifetime of my trade. From the chart, I can see it has the highest chance of closing in profit within the first 90 minutes of being opened Thereafter, the chance of a loss rises significantly. Figure 5 EUR USD Trade outcome probability over 24 hour period forexop. This is because the maximal curves become flatter for longer periods If you check Figure 3 again you will see that the curves for 24-hours and 18 hours are quite similar, whereas there is a big difference between the 1 hour and 6-hour curves The highest differential is in the first few intervals where the curves are steepest. Money Management. As shown above, your stop distances have to work in terms of your profit target and the volatility levels. New traders often place stop losses too tight, thinking they are reducing risk The usual reas on for this is that they are using far too much leverage and try to reduce exposure by placing limits on individual trades It is better to manage risk through trade size exposure than to use stop losses which don t make sense. Suppose you see a trading opportunity, and the potential drawdown needs to be 300 pips to capture that profit If 300 pips is not an acceptable loss, then it is better to reduce leverage and adjust your trade size downwards to give you more flexibility. Instead of trading one lot, consider trading in one tenth of a lot units or lower. What is most important is that a potential loss or drawdown amount on a trade should be manageable within your account This should be part of an overall money management strategy so that you know your loss limits and those losses, even in succession will not cause a margin call or bankrupt your account. Remember, over-leverage is the 1 killer of new forex traders. Stop Loss Calculator. I provide the Excel spreadsheet with all calculations here so that you can download it and try this system out for yourself. For instructions on how to use the sheet, please see here The spreadsheet does not have the live price feed which the MT4 indicator uses, but you can manually paste in historical price data from MetaTrader to work out optimum take profit and stop losses in the same way I ve explained. The MetaTrader indicator, which does the same calculations in real time and includes additional features is also available See below for more details. Want to stay up to date. Just add your email address below and get updates to your inbox. Why Most Trend Line Strategies Fail Trends are all about timing Time them right you can potentially capture a strong move in the market. Day Trading Volume Breakouts This strategy works by detecting breakouts in EURUSD at times when volume is increasing sharply Usually. The Engulfing Candlestick Trade How Reliable Is It You may have seen there are countless articles on the web declaring engulfing strategie s are a sure. Keltner Channel Breakout Strategy The classic way to trade the Keltner channel is to enter the market as the price breaks above or below. Momentum Day Trading Strategy Using Candle Patterns This momentum strategy is very straightforward All you need is the Bollinger bands indicator and to. Why Changing Markets are Where the Real Money is Made All serious money managers know that the smart money is made not when the market is stable but when. A week after Brexit Focus on currencies The BoE also said it was ready to take additional measures if needed The decline of the currency is. Hi Steve Great article Could you please advise how the reward risk is calculated I am newbie and till now I was calculating reward risk by just dividing TP pips SL pips, but learned that it is not right after reading your article I am not able to get the mathematical figure shown in the excel sheet for the target win ratio I selected Could you also please show with an example of how probability trade wins and probability trade losses are calculated Thank you very much. Hello, I really like your article I m wondering, do you have a spreadsheet for calculating maximal curves Like in Figure 3 I ve downloaded the Stop Loss Calculator excel file, but this one is not there, or at least i cannot see it. That graph is from a different spreadsheet It may go in one of the online tools at some stage. Hi Steve I was looking for a solution for Stop Loss placement and came across your article Thank you for what seems to be a great solution I do not use MT4, but have been able to export the historical dat My only challenge is that I cannot paste the data in the provided columns, as the cells are protected How do I get around this i e Can I get the password. A password isn t needed This happens when you are pasting in too many rows for the range Just clip the rows to the max number allowed and it should be fine. Hi Steve, hope you are doing well Awesome indicators I love how everything is mathematicall y explained and makes great sense I have a math engineering background Already purchased a few of the indicators and looking for my next one to buy. For this Stop Loss Take Profit indicator, is there any reason that 288 periods were used for generating the outputs. I find that most trends on the pairs I trade move in 20-30 period cycles, so I use that as the sampling period so I can for example bring up a 15 min chart and have an SLTP value that coincides rather than use a longer period and have to consult the shorter timeframe for SLTP values Is that too short a period. What would be cool is if shorter timeframe SLTP values could be displayed on the longer timeframe chart. Hope what I wrote makes sense Thanks. There s no special reason for the period 288 other than it s one complete day in the M5 chart It s also within the limits of where the calculations will work About 20 to 1000 intervals is the optimum. The formula to estimate any trending bias is based on a measure of upward downward v olatility In the examples above maximal curves a flat market model was used This doesn t mean no trending it just means there s no prior assumption about direction of the trend. Steve, thank you very much for this article As per wikipedia , the second part of the factorial should be n-m, not m n Is this a typo, or I do miss something Thanks. The formula I ve shown in the box above is that for finding the probability of a maximum point being reached in a random walk that is any point at or below the maximum I checked this just now with the Wikipedia version and in fact unless n the time you are looking forward is very small the two formulas n m or n-m give identical results This is because of the symmetry of the combinatorial function But the right one according to the reflection principle is n m There s also the special case to use n m 1 where the parity is different in m and n And because of the symmetry m n 1 is identical to n-m Again unless n is very small this won t make much differe nce to the numbers if you use either n m or n-m. Thanks a lot for the explanation Could you also kindly explain how m is related with the 62 pips As I understand it. n total number of steps m the number of steps needed to touch 62 pips. In the formula we know what is the probability that the max will happen after m steps, but how is this related with 62 pips How do we know that this is 62 pips and no more less Thanks. The pip movement depends on the scaling factor in the random process That scaling is governed by two things. The time period for each step for e g if it s 5 minutes, 15-minutes, 1 hour or whatever. And secondly the volatility because that will tell you the expected movement in the random process for a given time step. From that you can work out the expected distance and convert to pips or percent. Hi Steve do you happen to know the financial theory that happens to have a close connection with the stop loss order very nice article. The underlying theory is most always based on stoc hastic probability models This is used to characterize price volatility and risk In the basic theory a characterization of volatility is found and this is then used as way to model the price development That being in terms of a probability distribution that allows some kind of forward prediction But there are plenty of others which cover more obscure areas. There s also distortion risk models which try to model long tail events For example the process of stop losses distorting prices as certain levels are hit or of high-impact low probability events that fall beyond conventional models. Financial risk management and VAR theory is a good starting point. Hi, Maybe you are planning mt5 version of this indicator I already have mt4 version, but mt4 is a lot slower in backtesting Have a nice day. They said mt5 is faster Cannot say have seen a difference yet in my backtesting but I guess it depends what you are doing. There isn t an MT5 version at the moment, maybe later on if there s more demand for it. A very interesting article. On Feb 23 2015, you gave the equations for p win , p lose p open in an answer to BYO2000 Most of it makes sense to me, but can you please explain how to arrived at the equations for p win first and p lose first. Sure This is a conditional probability using standard theory. If the price touched both the stop loss and the take profit during a time frame then there are two distinct probabilities with that set Either it touched the SL first or it touched the TP first during that period Hence the two different cases to count for this. Great job, but I personally don t trust that much the random walk theory It states, that future princes are normally distributed and the probability to take each value depends on the standard deviation volatility in this case. Based on that, how can big price fluctuations be explained For example, taking random walk as an absolute truth, it would be extremely bizarre to see prices fluctuations above 3 3 times the volatility since probability is less than 1 but if you look at the market it has happen quite a lot. If you required the specific examples let me know I will show you. I want to know your opinion about this, and if is possible, have an idea of how efficient is this strategy when you use it. I completely get where you re coming from A lot of people especially technical traders don t agree with the RWM That s their opinion I am not going to spend a lot time defending it as there are people out there who can do a lot better job than I can Though what I can say is that much of the criticism I ve seen is unjustified or just plain wrong What you say above only holds true if you assume that volatility and drift in the model never changes Actually though these components are changing all the time. Volatility measuring is by definition lagging so you can never know what the instantaneous volatility is You can only estimate it based on information available at the time So when you say a 3x volatility move, what that really means is 3x what the volatility was in the past Not what it is at a given instant This is a limitation of measurement not the model As I mentioned in the article implied volatility can give you a forward measure and that can be used instead. So far RWM is the best and simplest explanation of market moves I have yet seen If something better comes along I ll be the first to use it I ve seen advanced simulators and I can tell you that you can t tell the difference between them and any other price chart every type of chart pattern is seen and is reproducible The word random just seems to be a red flag to a lot of people But the RWM has both a deterministic and non-deterministic part and it s the deterministic part we try to discover and trade on. Hi can you explain how to upload new metatrader data in the excel spread sheet please Thanks your help is appreciated. I would be grateful if you could perhaps give a more detailed explanation as to how you calculated the maximals table as us ed in your Excel Worksheet. At first glance, it does seem to be related to some form of cumulative function of the p Yn m probability you mention in the Random Walk explanation box maybe some kind of cumulative distribution function, but it is not described here. I read the related material and links provided about the Random Walk , as well as other sources of information by different authors, but can t seem to find anything that would explain how you calculated the maximals table. The maximals are a forecast of how far the price is expected to move maximal distance over a certain time That s taken from the random walk model with or without a drift component The drift gives the trend so that allows the model to forecast changes in different directions other than a flat market There are standard mathematical procedures for working this out and creating a discrete time-based probability distribution from it From that distribution it s possible to work out the probability of a price move wit hin a certain time interval. There s some more discussion about it here Duke uni also has a lot of good info on this subject The above papers are giving an overview. There s something I don t understand Your chances of winning are higher let s say 68 3 to cite your example , but the amount you would win is lower 26 9 than the amount you lose -67 3 This leads to a negative expected return. So, if you run this strategy many times you ll end up losing money, right. You also have to account for the probability of the trade still being open There s an 8 probability that the price doesn t reach either the stop or take profit and that accounts for the missing value in the expectation So the value 1-0 683 in your formula doesn t account for all other outcomes which have to be integrated over to find the true expectation There s always a finite probability that the trade will be open however long you wait If you look at figure 5 for example the p open graph gets smaller but it never quite becomes z ero In either case this is a truth of computation it s not something that applies just to this strategy. Indeed, the expected profitability of a trade if I am not mistaken should be an integral of an asymmetric capped maximal curve Have you per chance made this computation in your testing, as I think this is the most relevant quantity to optimize on. Another thing is that this is still very simplistic in the sense that the construction of your stop loss and take profit are based on how you built your signal My understanding is that the signal you built is a simplistic version of something along this line if you feel that the market is overselling an asset downward trend you will buy hence the trend and trend - that were not very intuitive on the first reading Then wanting to build your asymmetric maximal curve makes sense since you look at an asymmetric volatility which kind of tell you if the trend was fundamentally stopping and the future was noise, I can still expect the market to tren d lower by x pips due to underlying volatility I am not sure the way you measure it though makes sense given that in fact, what you want to look at is the volatility of the price if there were no trend going on, which will give you limit that will be breached quickly if the trend was to continue and the prediction was wrong I feel this is in a sense a better way to include the potential signal into your stop loss, as the stop loss should then be tighter but on a justifiable note. Overall I quite like the ideas you expose here, but I feel the main point which is the expected return computed from the integration of maximal curve is missing, as this is what is verifiable in live trading or backtest. The more interesting question to me is the reverse hypothesis That being the maximum likelihood estimator MLE of the trend and volatility given a noisy sequence of prices Because without knowing this any expected return would in any case be zero when you cannot make any prior assumption on trend direction the deterministic and you have a symmetric range of probabilities Solutions to the MLE can be found but that does mean using Monte Carlo simulation or something similar since there are no closed forms to this problem This is something we are working on. Does that indicator work on anything for e g on CFD or just forex. It should work on most instruments including CFDs Metals, Oil and so on If you have any problems just raise a support request. i think if you use rrr like this, this 82 tp probability also cant do any help for our accounts, but may be this is what us new traders want to hear, wide stop loss and tight take profit, it is alluring for newbies thanks zkan izmir Turkiye. Nobody here is recommending an sl or any other value The article is an analysis of the stop loss placement and what result that is having on your rr and on probability winning or losing the trade If you had read further than para one you would understand your remark has no logic but is the view of the amateur. Great article-thanks very much Is the spreadsheet still active so that historical data can be copied, or has it been protected since the last posts I have Excel 2010 but there is no apparent way to paste data in the Input tab. Yes it is still active No, it s not locked But to edit you will need to save a local copy This is because Excel 2010 and later will disable edits for any spreadsheets downloaded from the web If you are still having an issue with this please use the contact form to get in touch and I ll take a look. Thanks, the problem seemed to be with Excel 2010 I tried 2013 and it works fine. Hi, I was wondering how the maximal curves are built using estimated volatility given 5m volatility of 10pips, so volatility for 24hr s5 sqrt 24 60 12 0 01697pips Then for P X TP we can use z x-mu s24 and Pr z TP-mu s24 , for TP 40pips and mu 0, im not getting 82 probability but 100 I m not sure this is the right way to do it Wondering if you could point me to how to build those curve s. Please see reply below. Hi, nice article I m trying to understand it I have a question about how sample volatility is used in the calculation of maximal curves. Am i supposed to approximate the binomial dist with std normal using z x-mu s x s if mu 0, s 0 001 then calculate P z c where c is TP So if s5 0 0010 per 5m, we get 24hr volatility as s24 s5 sqrt 24 60 5 0 01697, if target price is 40pips then is P x 0040 or using z, P z 0 0040 s24 but this doesn t give me 82 chance of reaching TP. Further, doing this only gives me the prob of z being above c at the end of the holding period but that s not what we want, we want to find P z c at any intermediate time Would be great if you could explain. It is a cumulative probability of maximal distance traversed in a certain time So by that definition it covers all intermediate times between such as P z c in your notation I would also calculate the 24 hour volatility directly if that is what you need, rather than trying to scale up from 5M timefr ames. Excuse me Steve. is this spreadsheet valid only for the EURUSD pair I tried to use it with AUDUSD values but got thousands pips large TP and SL While with EURUSD values it works perfectly. Yes it is compatible with AUD USD This problem is most likely due mixed data histories Please ensure all of the old data is removed and reset the pip value selector. Alternative you can use the MT4 indicator which is now available and does this for you. This is a very detailed article and confirm to me what I thought when I approached the Forex market after a short period of trading You mentioned at the end of the article that you have also an EA that make the same calculations of the TP SL as your great Excel spreadsheet and I would be very happy to integrate it in my own EA used to trade Is it available for download free Does it work on live data taken directly from MT4 without the need to export them Thank you very much for your answer and for your website. Yes it can work with a live price feed I t could be made available as an MT indicator in the future but that would depend on the interest as it would need to be recoded. is this spreadsheet valid only for the Pounds pair. It should work with any pair If you re importing data from Metatrader please make sure the sizing is correctly set in the data tab. Hi, I can t paste right, I mean when I copy historical data from MT4, and paste it to input as you said, there are no spaces between the comma, and it is not divided as on your picture In your picture each cell gives one information like date, etc, but when I paste it the information starts in one cell and ends in another I have new excel, what should I do Regards, Micha. If your data is all in one column as it sounds then you need to use the text to column function in Excel to format it into separate cells If you saved it and opened it as a csv file it would normally do this for you. One of the best articles I ve found on stop and profit targets Thanks for sharing your knowledge wit h a newbie like me. problem with excel file can you upload it again. You will need Excel 2010 or later otherwise some of the features will not work. Hi, I can t paste the same as you when I use data from MT4 The numbers start in one cell and end in the other I have new excel What should I do. That s a very nice of you Mr Steve According to calculating volatility and RRR, I am wondering that as a day trader with a very short horizon period of investment Ex 5-15 Mins chart This method could be potentially help any trades Why I said so What being said is that If I my trade set up were 2 1 RRR, which I have to set my SL at -200 and TP at 100 In the long run, do you think this kind of statistic will help the trades to win Literally, taking a smaller pips and widening a SL could really boost up a winning percentage which means that once I losses such any single trades I have to try to double up profitability to cover such losses Here come to my question, in this kind of situation that I earlier mentioned, do you have any way to fix it or if the theory you mentioned works, how could you adapt to use with scalping trader and day trader style Thank you very much for your consideration in advance. It s a good point and one I should have expanded on in the article In my opinion it doesn t make a lot of sense to have a fixed ratio of SL to TP for all cases The choice should be dynamic because it depends entirely on the situation you are trading and the market conditions. A breakout trade for example may have a low probability of success but a high payoff As well it is usually clear after a short time whether the breakout is going to happen or not In that case it doesn t make much sense to allow say a 2 1 SL TP which would allow a big drawdown When in fact if the draw happens you already know the setup has failed In other situations the reverse may be true. Great article Can you explain why you calculate volatility on open close data From the open close data, I calculate that to be jus t over 10 pips per 5-minute period Why don t you use the ATR or high low data I m trading daily charts, so the difference is quite large. You can use ATR You can also use the Bollinger bandwidth as a vol measure Whichever you use you should get roughly the same ratio of TP SL however because the measures are relative to each other and not absolute If you need to calculate a specific probability then in this case some calibration is needed depending on which vol metric is being used. thank you for your good strategy i have question i tried to calculate probability for volatility of 10 pip per 5 min for 1 hour for distance 51 which gave us n 12 and m 6 for box formula but i calculate 5 for probability and from your curves it seems true percentage is 15 can you tell me why my result are different thanks. Your value seems too low Because these are probability functions the curves need to be worked out as a cumulative value of the function not the point value over the move distance you are loo king at. Probably the best forex article I ever read. Hi, very nice and useful article I was wondering if it was possible to have a numerical example of how to calculate the probability using random walk In your example, are you assuming a drift component 1 Or less Thank you in advance Bye. Where s the EA. You can have the price rising then falling in which case it passes a TP AND SL For eg If you have very close TP SL then these have near 100 chances of being hit If you imagine a space of outcomes you have. p SL only hit P TP only hit P SL and TP hit P Neither TP nor SL hit. ECB EURNZD, EURAUD, EURGBP, EURCAD whipsaw upwards before collapsing The greatest one was the EURGBP this time round. One either widens their SLs 150-200pips for crosses or tightened stops risked a larger loss when it hits the SL Other than staying out completely. Prior to ECB, EURCAD went to low of 1 36945 The whipsaw touched SL of 1 3765 before retracing downwards For a short position, adding a Stop Loss gave away profit of 70 pips Does assigning probability described applies to risk events like ECB. The EURGBP is now back at the same level, though it whipsawed the most. What s your view about contrarian trades that agrees with TA at the time you look at it example would you have longed the EURNZD on Mar 5, would using this probability analysis tell one not to long but short it instead although the charts are long Measuring the strength continuity of reversal moves. Cheryl - Does assigning probability described applies to risk events like ECB. Not unless these events occur frequently within the time sample you are looking at, but even then its unlikely you could ever model them to predict an outcome Major news releases those with very high impact are by their nature unpredictable and can will change the trajectory of the price in ways that are beyond normal statistically analysis. Cheryl - What s your view about contrarian trades that agrees with TA at the time you look at it example would you have longed the EURNZD. Absolutely, contrarian trades can and do work but then there are limits, I would be cautious about trading contrarian against strong fundamentals For eg, I wouldn t long EURNZD simply because of the swap yield of -4 24 on the long side The strong downward trend for the last six years is a reflection of that But then if you re scalping a few pips here and there it can make sense, and sure the Euro is going to turn sooner or later. The maximal curves show the probability of how many pips price will move in either direction right I don t quite get how the curves can be applied to just TP eg if we want to know the probability of TP of 40 pips in 24hrs, yes the curves do give a probability of 82 , but wouldn t it be 40 pips in either direction ie 41 of 40 pips 41 of -40 pips because I m assuming the curves have no drift, a walk in either direction is equall y likely, etc Maybe I m missing something apologies if it s a dumb question Thanks. No only in one direction The maximal curve will give the probability of a maximum point being reached, or equally if you apply the formula on the other side, to a minimal point being reached When symmetric as you say, it is just mirrored. So for eg P Z 40 pips gives an independent probability only of the price moving above the 40 pips level It says nothing about the price falling say 200 pips below, this is why there is a separate case for the SL point. With no drift, yes it would be the same 41 for a move either side. apologies again, I m a bit slow let s see if I got this The SL is a separate case So just considering the TP, what the maximal curve shows is P Z 40pips P Z 40pips 41.Not quite What the maximal curve basically shows is the probability of a high-watermark being reached and that applies for a certain time period only So say you want to know the probability of the price going 40 pips or higher within 24 hours That s P Z 40 pips from the 24-hour curve it s 82 After 1 hour, its 28 thereabouts, I am just looking at chart not in Excel. Thanks for your patience Steve. It was probably my fault, but my previous comment was strangely truncated What I wrote was to ask if the maximal curves show P Z 40pips P Z 40pips 82 If so, doesn t that also imply P Z -40pips 82 , which surely cannot be I m lost here. You are welcome. I have to answer here because its not possible to add a reply any deeper it will be better to continue this in Forum section where there is more room. byo2000 What I wrote was to ask if the maximal curves show P Z 40pips P Z 40pips 82.There is no addition here did you mean P Z 40pips, it gives this as 82 from the curve This tells me only one thing in isolation that the TP has 82 chance of being struck. Very cool idea great article I have some questions In Step 3, can you explain how you got the table for p win , p loss , p open Thanks. Sure It s standard probability theory. Say p wl P price hits SL TP. P wl p TP hit x p SL hit p win first p TP hit x p wl p TP hit p SL hit p lose first p SL hit x p wl p TP hit p SL hit p win p TP hit p lose first p lose p SL hit p win first P open 1-p win - p lose. Thanks Steve I love your articles. Could you commend on reversal moves Trades such as EURAUD on 20 Feb hit a low of 1 4385 and spiked upwards to 1 4583 100-200 pips reversed moves can be pretty tough psychologically to place stops where you don t want them too close, yet when it hits SL it erased off those hard earned gains or puts one in steeper losses. I was in some other trades that reversed off its lows As I read your posts, I know we are going down to really precise levels now That -100 stoploss can take place in a very short span of time and hurt quite a bit if one s position is in several trades at the same time. EUR AUD is quite a volatile pair, with about 50 higher volatility than EUR USD at the moment. That is for a 1 day trade, for the short side I would use a ratio somewhere around TP 56 SL 250 Are you trading the long or short side because it really makes a difference here On the buy side there s very high swap rate -3 13 to take into consideration. Reversal moves are all part of the normal daily volatility in the markets I m of the view that it s better to have a lower leverage so that these events can be withstood because in the scheme of things a 100-200 pip move is pretty insignificant really. Thanks I was thinking through my mistakes, and reading your spreadsheets Essentially the trades I got stopped out was GBPUSD, GBPCAD, EURCAD It is trade timin g SL 250 is tough psychologically I am not going to be able to test 200 plus pips. Actually some profit from the EURAUD, EURNZD I trade several illiquid pairs gbpnzd and also trade short side for some pairs, and hedge sometimes as well. I will look through the win loss ratios, and trades probabilities to examine the trades and see if I can improve on where it went wrong You have got a great resource I was already doing breakouts, grid trading, carry trades for some time, but I still come back because everything was very well written and learn from someone who is strong. Could you write an article on basket trading I have been practicing, don t know if this is something doable on a live account. nice idea thanks steve, i will try this out and see how it works. . Forex . Forex , .-, , , .-, , , 10-20 .-, Forex , , .-, , , , . , Forex, , , , . 2017 . , . , , , .